The Four-Year Cycle Theory: Alive, Altered, or Over?
One of the most enduring ideas in Bitcoin analysis is the “four-year cycle” — the belief that Bitcoin’s price tends to follow a rhythm connected to its halving events. Every four years, when mining rewards are cut in half, supply tightens, often followed by a gradual rise, euphoric peak, and eventual correction.
Recently, Gemini’s Saad Ahmed reaffirmed confidence that this cycle still holds value, though in a more flexible form. According to him, while Bitcoin’s growth may still echo this traditional rhythm, the environment surrounding it has changed dramatically.
Today, Bitcoin no longer moves in isolation. Institutional flows, ETF adoption, global monetary policy, and macroeconomic cycles all have a say in how and when the market behaves. The original cycle model — once driven purely by retail psychology and halving supply shocks — now overlaps with broader economic forces.
Analysts continue to map this evolving pattern. Some estimate that if previous timing symmetry remains roughly intact, Bitcoin’s peak could arrive in late 2025, marking the climax of the current bull run. However, these predictions now carry more uncertainty. Instead of predictable phases, the modern Bitcoin market is more fluid — shaped by liquidity, investor confidence, and cross-asset correlations.
Market Snapshot & Key Drivers (October 2025)
Price and Momentum
Bitcoin has once again crossed the six-figure mark, hovering around the $115,000 to $120,000 zone. It’s a level that reflects strong optimism but also rising caution. Bulls are eager to push past resistance at $121,000, while support around $110,000 is being tested repeatedly.
The broader crypto market capitalization now exceeds $4 trillion — a level not seen since the height of 2021’s bull market. Ethereum, Solana, and other major altcoins have followed Bitcoin’s lead, posting double-digit gains over the past month. The narrative has shifted from “if” the cycle continues to “how far” it can go before momentum cools.
Institutional Flows and the ETF Effect
The biggest catalyst behind Bitcoin’s sustained strength is institutional demand. Spot Bitcoin ETFs — introduced earlier in the year — have become a defining feature of this bull cycle. They allow traditional investors, pension funds, and corporate treasuries to gain Bitcoin exposure without navigating crypto exchanges directly.
In recent weeks, net inflows into these ETFs have crossed billions of dollars, reinforcing the idea that Bitcoin has entered a phase of mainstream financial integration. This constant stream of institutional capital has softened volatility and provided a reliable floor for prices.
Ethereum ETFs, though smaller in scale, are beginning to attract similar attention. The growing acceptance of crypto-based financial products has made the market less speculative and more structured than ever before.
On-Chain and Whale Activity
Behind the institutional flows, on-chain data paints a picture of steady accumulation. Large holders — often referred to as “whales” — have added billions worth of Bitcoin and Ethereum to their portfolios over the past month.
Exchange inflows remain low, suggesting that most investors prefer to hold rather than sell. Metrics like realized profit, long-term holder supply, and wallet dormancy indicate conviction rather than hype. The 2021-style frenzy of short-term speculation has been replaced with a more calculated form of optimism.
Meanwhile, derivatives markets — including futures and options — have grown more influential in shaping short-term sentiment. When spot markets consolidate, derivatives often lead the next breakout or correction, serving as an early signal for trend reversals.
Macro Forces and Policy Backdrop
Bitcoin’s performance today cannot be separated from the global economy. The correlation between crypto and equities — particularly tech stocks — has strengthened, showing that risk appetite in traditional markets often spills over into crypto.
Investors are closely watching central bank policy. Expectations of rate cuts from the U.S. Federal Reserve have fueled optimism, as lower interest rates tend to drive capital toward higher-yielding assets like Bitcoin.
Regulatory developments also play a pivotal role. In the United States, clearer frameworks for crypto taxation and custody have improved investor confidence, while in Europe and Asia, governments are testing blockchain integration in finance and trade. This regulatory maturation, though uneven across regions, has made crypto appear more legitimate in the eyes of global institutions.
Even discussions around sovereign Bitcoin holdings — such as the idea of countries building digital reserves — have become part of mainstream policy conversations, signaling a long-term shift in perception.
Risks, Overhangs, and Red Flags
Despite the upbeat sentiment, caution remains necessary. A few critical risks could easily shift market dynamics:
- Resistance and Fatigue:
If Bitcoin fails to break decisively above $121,000, it may enter a prolonged consolidation phase. Historically, when price momentum stalls near a psychological level, profit-taking intensifies. - ETF Flow Reversal:
Institutional buying has been the backbone of this rally. Any reversal in ETF inflows — due to market corrections or changing macro conditions — could amplify volatility instead of dampening it. - Regulatory Surprises:
Unexpected crackdowns, taxation changes, or cross-border restrictions could unsettle investors. The industry’s global nature makes it highly sensitive to policy shifts. - Macro Shocks:
If inflation rebounds or if central banks turn unexpectedly hawkish, liquidity could tighten rapidly, prompting risk-off behavior across all asset classes. - Cycle Misinterpretation:
Overreliance on historical patterns without considering structural market evolution can lead to mistimed entries or exits. Today’s market is not identical to that of 2017 or 2021.
Outlook and Scenarios
Given current data, three broad scenarios outline the road ahead:
| Scenario | Market Behavior | Potential BTC Range | Key Triggers |
|---|---|---|---|
| Extended Bull Run | Continuous inflows, stable macro backdrop, positive regulation | $140,000 – $160,000 | ETF expansion, rate cuts, institutional demand |
| Sideways Consolidation | Resistance holds, mixed sentiment, rotation to altcoins | $110,000 – $125,000 | Neutral policy tone, slower inflows |
| Correction Phase | Profit-taking, ETF outflows, macro tightening | $90,000 – $110,000 | Inflation spikes, hawkish central banks, regulatory clampdowns |
The market currently leans toward the bullish or sideways outcome, but as history has shown, Bitcoin’s volatility can reshape forecasts overnight.
Final Thoughts
Bitcoin’s current cycle is both familiar and transformed. The four-year rhythm still beats beneath the surface, but the instruments have changed — ETFs, institutional investors, and global policy now play leading roles in the melody.
For traders and long-term believers, the message is clear: the age of blind speculation is giving way to a more mature, data-driven market. Yet, the essence of crypto — volatility, innovation, and decentralized opportunity — remains the same.
Whether Bitcoin peaks in 2025 or charts a new kind of trajectory altogether, one truth endures: the asset continues to evolve, pulling the global financial system along with it.
